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Personalized risk prediction for event‐free survival at 24 months in patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma
Author(s) -
Maurer Matthew J.,
Jais JeanPhilippe,
Ghesquières Hervé,
Witzig Thomas E.,
Hong Fangxin,
Haioun Corinne,
Thompson Carrie A.,
Thieblemont Catherine,
Micallef Iva.,
Porrata Luis F.,
Ribrag Vincent,
Nowakowski Gregorz S.,
Casasnovas Olivier,
Bologna Serge,
Morschhauser Franck,
Morrison Vicki A.,
Peterson Bruce A.,
Macon William R.,
CopieBergman Christiane,
Feldman Andrew L.,
Syrbu Sergei I.,
Kurtin Paul J.,
Gascoyne Randy D.,
Li Hailun,
Allmer Cristine,
Kahl Brad S.,
Ansell Stephen M.,
Slager Susan L.,
Link Brian K.,
Salles Gilles,
Habermann Thomas M.,
Tilly Hervé,
Cerhan James R.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
american journal of hematology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.456
H-Index - 105
eISSN - 1096-8652
pISSN - 0361-8609
DOI - 10.1002/ajh.24223
Subject(s) - medicine , diffuse large b cell lymphoma , clinical endpoint , statistic , oncology , population , anthracycline , framingham risk score , disease , lymphoma , cancer , clinical trial , statistics , mathematics , breast cancer , environmental health
We recently defined event‐free survival at 24 months (EFS24) as a clinically relevant outcome for patients with DLBCL. Patients who fail EFS24 have very poor overall survival, while those who achieve EFS24 have a subsequent overall survival equivalent to that of the age‐ and sex‐matched general population. Here, we develop and validate a clinical risk calculator (IPI24) for EFS24. Model building was performed on a discovery dataset of 1,348 patients with DLBCL and treated with anthracycline‐based immunochemotherapy. A multivariable model containing age, Ann Arbor stage, normalized serum LDH, ALC, ECOG performance status, bulky disease, and sex was identified. The model was then applied to an independent validation dataset of 1,177 DLBCL patients. The IPI24 score estimates the probability of failing to achieve the EFS24 endpoint for an individual patient. The IPI24 model showed superior discriminatory ability ( c ‐statistic = 0.671) in the validation dataset compared to the IPI ( c ‐statistic = 0.649) or the NCCN‐IPI ( c ‐statistic = 0.657). After recalibration of the model on the combined dataset, the median predicted probability of failing to achieve EFS24 was 36% (range, 12–88%), and the IPI24 showed an EFS24 gradient in all IPI groups. The IPI24 also identified a significant percentage of patients with high risk disease, with over 20% of patients having a 50% or higher risk of failing to achieve EFS24. The IPI24 provides an individual patient level probability of achieving the clinically relevant EFS24 endpoint. It can be used via electronic apps. Am. J. Hematol. 91:179–184, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.