Agronomic approach to understanding climate change and food security

Climate impacts agricultural productivity and the distribution of crops grown around the world. Because the United States is a leader in food exports, climate change impacts in the United States have the potential to disproportionately affect the global food supply. Given the change in temperature, precipitation, and carbon dioxide occurring now and expected into the future, the potential for agroecosystems to produce sufficient quantities of food to meet world demand is in question. To address this question, the concept of yield gaps, as the difference between potential yield (PY) and farm or actual yield (FY), provides a framework for the evaluation of progress in production. Across all crops, there have been increases in both PY (breeding, technological advances) and FY (implementation of improved genetic resources and management practices); however, climate change threatens to diminish those advances due to temperature stresses and more uncertain precipitation patterns. Climate change will not only directly increase the yield gap in the future but also further indirectly widen the yield gap by the degradation of the soil resource due to interactions of climate and management. Modern agricultural systems must adapt to become more resilient to climate change, and the tools to this adaptation involve genetics, environmental monitoring, and evolving management practices. However, progress can only begin once agricultural systems are managed from a more holistic view of providing both quantity and quality of a more diverse mixture of agricultural crops that will provide sustainability, equity, nutrition, and a secure food future.