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Does Trade Policy Uncertainty Affect Agriculture?
Author(s) -
Gopinath Munisamy
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
applied economic perspectives and policy
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.4
H-Index - 49
eISSN - 2040-5804
pISSN - 2040-5790
DOI - 10.1002/aepp.13083
Subject(s) - economics , agriculture , commercial policy , trade war , revenue , government (linguistics) , globalization , trade barrier , government revenue , international trade , affect (linguistics) , international economics , market economy , finance , china , ecology , linguistics , philosophy , law , political science , biology
This article reviews evidence of trade war impacts and emerging concerns on trade policy uncertainty. Trade war's near‐perfect pass‐through of tariffs to US prices favored producers and generated government revenue at the expense of consumers. Facing retaliation, prices and trade volumes were found to be lower for US agricultural commodities. The recent rethink on the benefits of globalization by major economies has led to uncertain policy paths wherein firms and consumers continue to make decisions. Using quarterly data, a negative association between policy uncertainty and agricultural economic indicators is affirmed with implications for future evaluation of trade war impacts.