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Effects of Reductions in Body Mass Index on the Future Osteoarthritis Burden in Canada: A Population‐Based Microsimulation Study
Author(s) -
Kopec Jacek A.,
Sayre Eric C.,
Fines Philippe,
Flanagan William M.,
Nadeau Claude,
Okhmatovskaia Anya,
Wolfson Michael C.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
arthritis care and research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.032
H-Index - 163
eISSN - 2151-4658
pISSN - 2151-464X
DOI - 10.1002/acr.22796
Subject(s) - microsimulation , body mass index , medicine , demography , population , obesity , gerontology , incidence (geometry) , disease burden , psychological intervention , environmental health , physics , optics , psychiatry , sociology , transport engineering , engineering
Objective Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease and a major cause of disability. Incidence and prevalence of OA are expected to increase due to population aging and increased levels of obesity. The purpose of this study was to project the effect of hypothetical interventions that change the distribution of body mass index (BMI) on OA burden in Canada. Methods We used a microsimulation computer model of OA based on the Population Health Model platform. The model used demographic predictions for Canada and population data from an administrative database in British Columbia and national Canadian surveys. Results Under the base‐case scenario, between 2010 and 2030, OA prevalence is expected to increase from 11.5% to 15.6% in men and 16.3% to 21.1% in women. In scenarios assuming, on average, a 0.3‐, 0.5‐, or 1‐unit drop in BMI per year, OA prevalence in 2030 would reach 14.9%, 14.6%, and 14.2% in men and 20.3%, 19.7%, and 18.5%, in women, respectively. Under these scenarios, the proportion of new cases prevented would be 9.5%, 13.2%, and 16.7%, respectively, in men, and 9.1%, 15.2%, and 25.0% in women. Targeting only those people ages ≥50 years for weight reduction would achieve approximately 70% of the impact of a full population strategy. Targeting only the obese (BMI ≥30) would likely result in a larger benefit for men than women. Conclusion Due to the aging of the population, OA will remain a major and growing health issue in Canada over the next 2 decades, regardless of the course of the obesity epidemic.