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Individual differences in the susceptibility to forecasting biases
Author(s) -
De Baets Shari,
Vanderheyden Karlien
Publication year - 2021
Publication title -
applied cognitive psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.719
H-Index - 100
eISSN - 1099-0720
pISSN - 0888-4080
DOI - 10.1002/acp.3831
Subject(s) - debiasing , psychology , cognition , cognitive bias , optimism , affect (linguistics) , optimism bias , cognitive style , cognitive psychology , set (abstract data type) , developmental psychology , social psychology , communication , neuroscience , computer science , programming language
Summary We set out to investigate whether interindividual differences in cognition affect the susceptibility to four forecasting biases: (a) optimism bias, (b) adding noise to forecasts, (c) presuming positive autocorrelation when series are independent, and (d) trend damping. All four biases were prevalent in the results, but we found no consistent relationships with cognition (cognitive style, cognitive reflection). Our sample included both novice and expert forecasters. They did not differ significantly in their susceptibility to biases. The lack of individual differences in bias susceptibility suggests that universal approaches to debiasing are possible.