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Training conditional and cumulative risk judgements: the role of frequencies, problem‐structure and einstellung
Author(s) -
McCloy Rachel,
Beaman C. Philip,
Morgan Beth,
Speed Rebecca
Publication year - 2007
Publication title -
applied cognitive psychology
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 0.719
H-Index - 100
eISSN - 1099-0720
pISSN - 0888-4080
DOI - 10.1002/acp.1273
Subject(s) - psychology , conditional probability , scheme (mathematics) , test (biology) , conditional expectation , cognitive psychology , artificial intelligence , statistics , computer science , mathematics , mathematical analysis , paleontology , biology
Two experiments implement and evaluate a training scheme for learning to apply frequency formats to probability judgements couched in terms of percentages. Results indicate that both conditional and cumulative probability judgements can be improved in this manner, however the scheme is insufficient to promote any deeper understanding of the problem structure. In both experiments, training on one problem type only (either conditional or cumulative risk judgements) resulted in an inappropriate transfer of a learned method at test. The obstacles facing a frequency‐based training programme for teaching appropriate use of probability data are discussed. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.