Premium
Estimating the Natural Flow Regime of Rivers With Long‐Standing Development: The Northern Branch of the Rio Grande
Author(s) -
Blythe Todd L.,
Schmidt John C.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1002/2017wr021919
Subject(s) - natural (archaeology) , environmental science , watershed , streamflow , flood myth , hydrology (agriculture) , flow (mathematics) , ecosystem , upstream (networking) , geography , geology , mathematics , ecology , computer science , drainage basin , cartography , computer network , geometry , geotechnical engineering , archaeology , machine learning , biology
An estimate of a river's natural flow regime is useful for water resource planning and ecosystem rehabilitation by providing insight into the predisturbance form and function of a river. The natural flow regime of most rivers has been perturbed by development during the 20th century and in some cases, before stream gaging began. The temporal resolution of natural flows estimated using traditional methods is typically not sufficient to evaluate cues that drive native ecosystem function. Additionally, these traditional methods are watershed specific and require large amounts of data to produce accurate results. We present a mass balance method that estimates natural flows at daily time step resolution for the northern branch of the Rio Grande, upstream from the Rio Conchos, that relies only on easily obtained streamflow data. Using an analytical change point method, we identified periods of the measured flow regime during the 20th century for comparison with the estimated natural flows. Our results highlight the significant deviation from natural conditions that occurred during the 20th century. The total annual flow of the northern branch is 95% lower than it would be in the absence of human use. The current 2 year flood has decreased by more than 60%, is shorter in duration, and peaks later in the year. When compared to unregulated flows estimated using traditional mass balance accounting methods, our approach provides similar results.