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Using system dynamics simulation for assessment of hydropower system safety
Author(s) -
King L. M.,
Simonovic S. P.,
Hartford D. N. D.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1002/2017wr020834
Subject(s) - hydropower , upgrade , system dynamics , vulnerability (computing) , computer science , reliability engineering , risk analysis (engineering) , function (biology) , systems engineering , engineering , computer security , medicine , artificial intelligence , evolutionary biology , electrical engineering , biology , operating system
Hydropower infrastructure systems are complex, high consequence structures which must be operated safely to avoid catastrophic impacts to human life, the environment, and the economy. Dam safety practitioners must have an in‐depth understanding of how these systems function under various operating conditions in order to ensure the appropriate measures are taken to reduce system vulnerability. Simulation of system operating conditions allows modelers to investigate system performance from the beginning of an undesirable event to full system recovery. System dynamics simulation facilitates the modeling of dynamic interactions among complex arrangements of system components, providing outputs of system performance that can be used to quantify safety. This paper presents the framework for a modeling approach that can be used to simulate a range of potential operating conditions for a hydropower infrastructure system. Details of the generic hydropower infrastructure system simulation model are provided. A case study is used to evaluate system outcomes in response to a particular earthquake scenario, with two system safety performance measures shown. Results indicate that the simulation model is able to estimate potential measures of system safety which relate to flow conveyance and flow retention. A comparison of operational and upgrade strategies is shown to demonstrate the utility of the model for comparing various operational response strategies, capital upgrade alternatives, and maintenance regimes. Results show that seismic upgrades to the spillway gates provide the largest improvement in system performance for the system and scenario of interest.