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Improving Lightning and Precipitation Prediction of Severe Convection Using Lightning Data Assimilation With NCAR WRF‐RTFDDA
Author(s) -
Wang Haoliang,
Liu Yubao,
Cheng William Y. Y.,
Zhao Tianliang,
Xu Mei,
Liu Yuewei,
Shen Si,
Calhoun Kristin M.,
Fierro Alexandre O.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2017jd027340
Subject(s) - graupel , weather research and forecasting model , meteorology , lightning (connector) , environmental science , precipitation , nowcasting , data assimilation , convection , latent heat , atmospheric sciences , geology , geography , physics , power (physics) , quantum mechanics
In this study, a lightning data assimilation (LDA) scheme was developed and implemented in the National Center for Atmospheric Research Weather Research and Forecasting‐Real‐Time Four‐Dimensional Data Assimilation system. In this LDA method, graupel mixing ratio ( q g ) is retrieved from observed total lightning. To retrieve q g on model grid boxes, column‐integrated graupel mass is first calculated using an observation‐based linear formula between graupel mass and total lightning rate. Then the graupel mass is distributed vertically according to the empirical q g vertical profiles constructed from model simulations. Finally, a horizontal spread method is utilized to consider the existence of graupel in the adjacent regions of the lightning initiation locations. Based on the retrieved q g fields, latent heat is adjusted to account for the latent heat releases associated with the formation of the retrieved graupel and to promote convection at the observed lightning locations, which is conceptually similar to the method developed by Fierro et al. Three severe convection cases were studied to evaluate the LDA scheme for short‐term (0–6 h) lightning and precipitation forecasts. The simulation results demonstrated that the LDA was effective in improving the short‐term lightning and precipitation forecasts by improving the model simulation of the q g fields, updrafts, cold pool, and front locations. The improvements were most notable in the first 2 h, indicating a highly desired benefit of the LDA in lightning and convective precipitation nowcasting (0–2 h) applications.