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Numerical Modeling of the Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Thermal State Across Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau
Author(s) -
Qin Yanhui,
Wu Tonghua,
Zhao Lin,
Wu Xiaodong,
Li Ren,
Xie Changwei,
Pang Qiangqiang,
Hu Guojie,
Qiao Yongping,
Zhao Guohui,
Liu Guangyue,
Zhu Xiaofan,
Hao Junming
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2017jd026858
Subject(s) - permafrost , active layer , plateau (mathematics) , rock glacier , geology , elevation (ballistics) , physical geography , global warming , geomorphology , glacier , altitude (triangle) , hydrology (agriculture) , climate change , environmental science , atmospheric sciences , climatology , geotechnical engineering , layer (electronics) , geography , oceanography , mathematical analysis , chemistry , geometry , mathematics , organic chemistry , thin film transistor
The dynamics of permafrost (including the permafrost thermal state and active layer thicknesses (ALT)) across the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau (QTP) have not been well understood on a large scale. Here we simulate the ALT and permafrost thermal state using the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab version 2 (GIPL2) model across the QTP. Based on the single‐point simulations, the model is upscaled to the entire QTP. The upscaled model is validated with five investigated regions (IRs), including Wenquan (WQIR), Gaize (GZIR), Aerjin (AEJIR), Xikunlun (XKLIR), and Qinghai‐Tibetan Highway (G109IR). The results show that the modified GIPL2 model improves the accuracy of the permafrost thermal state simulations. Due to our simulated results on the QTP, the average ALT is of 2.30 m (2.21–2.40 m). The ALT decreases with an increase in the altitude and decreases from the southeast to the northwest. The ALT is thin in the central QTP, but it is thick in the high‐elevation mountain areas and some areas surrounding glaciers and lakes. The largest ALT is found in the border areas between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The simulated results of the MAGT (the mean annual ground temperature) indicate that most of the permafrost is substable, which is sensitive to climate warming. The simulated results would be of great significance on assessing the impacts of permafrost dynamics on local hydrology, ecology, and engineering construction.