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Estimation of optimal dispersion model source parameters using satellite detections of volcanic ash
Author(s) -
Zidikheri Meelis J.,
Lucas Christopher,
Potts Rodney J.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2017jd026676
Subject(s) - volcanic ash , context (archaeology) , dispersion (optics) , grid , hysplit , atmospheric dispersion modeling , volcano , satellite , trajectory , meteorology , geology , environmental science , geodesy , mathematics , lagrangian , engineering , seismology , physics , aerospace engineering , optics , paleontology , air pollution , chemistry , organic chemistry , astronomy
In this paper we demonstrate how parameters describing the geometry of the volcanic ash source for a particular volcanic ash dispersion model (Hybrid Single‐Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT)) may be inferred by the use of satellite data and multiple trial simulations. The areas of space likely to be contaminated by ash are identified with the aid of various remote sensing techniques, and polygons are drawn around these areas as they would be in an operational setting. Dispersion model simulations are initialized by either a cylindrical source or a specified ash distribution depending on the context. Parameters of interest such as the base and top height, diameter, and optimal release time of the cylindrical source or the height of the specified ash distribution are inferred by forming a parameter grid and running multiple simulations for each parameter grid point value. Optimal values of the parameter values are identified by calculating spatial correlations between the model simulations and observations. We demonstrate that the methodology can be used to correctly infer various model parameters and improve volcanic ash forecasts in various eruption case studies.