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Extreme Threshold Failures Within a Heterogeneous Elastic Thin Sheet and the Spatial‐Temporal Development of Induced Seismicity Within the Groningen Gas Field
Author(s) -
Bourne S. J.,
Oates S. J.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: solid earth
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.983
H-Index - 232
eISSN - 2169-9356
pISSN - 2169-9313
DOI - 10.1002/2017jb014356
Subject(s) - induced seismicity , poromechanics , natural gas field , geology , seismology , exponential function , seismic hazard , conditional probability , hazard analysis , fault (geology) , geotechnical engineering , natural gas , porous medium , porosity , statistics , engineering , mathematics , aerospace engineering , waste management , mathematical analysis
Measurements of the strains and earthquakes induced by fluid extraction from a subsurface reservoir reveal a transient, exponential‐like increase in seismicity relative to the volume of fluids extracted. If the frictional strength of these reactivating faults is heterogeneously and randomly distributed, then progressive failures of the weakest fault patches account in a general manner for this initial exponential‐like trend. Allowing for the observable elastic and geometric heterogeneity of the reservoir, the spatiotemporal evolution of induced seismicity over 5 years is predictable without significant bias using a statistical physics model of poroelastic reservoir deformations inducing extreme threshold frictional failures of previously inactive faults. This model is used to forecast the temporal and spatial probability density of earthquakes within the Groningen natural gas reservoir, conditional on future gas production plans. Probabilistic seismic hazard and risk assessments based on these forecasts inform the current gas production policy and building strengthening plans.