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Resolving Tropical Cyclone Intensity in Models
Author(s) -
Davis C. A.
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl076966
Subject(s) - tropical cyclone , climatology , meteorology , storm , environmental science , grid , scale (ratio) , intensity (physics) , momentum (technical analysis) , climate model , climate change , geology , geography , physics , geodesy , cartography , oceanography , quantum mechanics , finance , economics
In recent years, global weather forecast models and global climate models have begun to depict intense tropical cyclones, even up to category 5 on the Saffir‐Simpson scale. In light of the limitation of horizontal resolution in such models, the author performs calculations, using the extended Best Track data for Atlantic tropical cyclones, to estimate the ability of models with differing grid spacing to represent Atlantic tropical cyclone intensity statistically. Results indicate that, under optimistic assumptions, models with horizontal grid spacing of one fourth degree or coarser should not produce a realistic number of category 4 and 5 storms unless there are errors in spatial attributes of the wind field. Furthermore, the case of Irma (2017) is used to demonstrate the importance of a realistic depiction of angular momentum and to motivate the use of angular momentum in model evaluation.