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Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change
Author(s) -
Ogawa Fumiaki,
Keenlyside Noel,
Gao Yongqi,
Koenigk Torben,
Yang Shuting,
Suo Lingling,
Wang Tao,
Gastineau Guillaume,
Nakamura Tetsu,
Cheung Ho Nam,
Omrani NourEddine,
Ukita Jinro,
Semenov Vladimir
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl076502
Subject(s) - climatology , sea ice , arctic ice pack , northern hemisphere , environmental science , arctic sea ice decline , arctic , atmospheric circulation , climate change , troposphere , general circulation model , cryosphere , latitude , climate model , atmospheric sciences , antarctic sea ice , oceanography , geology , geodesy
Wide disagreement among individual modeling studies has contributed to a debate on the role of recent sea ice loss in the Arctic amplification of global warming and the Siberian wintertime cooling trend. We perform coordinated experiments with six atmospheric general circulation models forced by the observed and climatological daily sea ice concentration and sea surface temperature. The results indicate that the impact of the recent sea ice decline is rather limited to the high‐latitude lower troposphere in winter, and the sea ice changes do not significantly lead to colder winters over Siberia. The observed wintertime Siberian temperature and corresponding circulation trends are reproduced in a small number of ensemble members but not by the multimodel ensemble mean, suggesting that atmospheric internal dynamics could have played a major role in the observed trends.