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Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014–2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases
Author(s) -
Yin Jianjun,
Overpeck Jonathan,
Peyser Cheryl,
Stouffer Ronald
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl076500
Subject(s) - forcing (mathematics) , climatology , greenhouse gas , environmental science , climate model , climate change , jump , sea surface temperature , temperature record , atmospheric sciences , geology , oceanography , physics , quantum mechanics
A 0.24°C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record‐breaking years (2014–2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Niño that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse‐gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record‐breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.