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Arctic Sea Ice in a 1.5°C Warmer World
Author(s) -
Niederdrenk Anne Laura,
Notz Dirk
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl076159
Subject(s) - climatology , global warming , arctic , arctic sea ice decline , arctic ice pack , sea ice , environmental science , climate change , arctic geoengineering , ice albedo feedback , cryosphere , climate model , effects of global warming on oceans , oceanography , antarctic sea ice , geology
We examine the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea ice in scenarios with limited future global warming. To do so, we analyze two sets of observational records that cover the observational uncertainty of Arctic sea ice loss per degree of global warming. The observations are combined with 100 simulations of historical and future climate evolution from the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model Grand Ensemble. Based on the high‐sensitivity observations, we find that Arctic September sea ice is lost with low probability ( P ≈ 10%) for global warming of +1.5°C above preindustrial levels and with very high probability ( P > 99%) for global warming of +2°C above preindustrial levels. For the low‐sensitivity observations, September sea ice is extremely unlikely to disappear for +1.5°C warming ( P ≪ 1%) and has low likelihood ( P ≈ 10%) to disappear even for +2°C global warming. For March, both observational records suggest a loss of 15% to 20% of Arctic sea ice area for 1.5°C to 2°C global warming.