Can Atmospheric Reanalysis Data Sets Be Used to Reproduce Flooding Over Large Scales?
Author(s) -
Andreadis Konstantinos M.,
Schumann Guy J.P.,
Stampoulis Dimitrios,
Bates Paul D.,
Brakenridge G. Robert,
Kettner Albert J.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl075502
Subject(s) - flood myth , flooding (psychology) , environmental science , meteorology , climatology , floodplain , benchmark (surveying) , ensemble forecasting , hazard , geology , geography , cartography , psychology , chemistry , archaeology , organic chemistry , psychotherapist
Abstract Floods are costly to global economies and can be exceptionally lethal. The ability to produce consistent flood hazard maps over large areas could provide a significant contribution to reducing such losses, as the lack of knowledge concerning flood risk is a major factor in the transformation of river floods into flood disasters. In order to accurately reproduce flooding in river channels and floodplains, high spatial resolution hydrodynamic models are needed. Despite being computationally expensive, recent advances have made their continental to global implementation feasible, although inputs for long‐term simulations may require the use of reanalysis meteorological products especially in data‐poor regions. We employ a coupled hydrologic/hydrodynamic model cascade forced by the 20CRv2 reanalysis data set and evaluate its ability to reproduce flood inundation area and volume for Australia during the 1973–2012 period. Ensemble simulations using the reanalysis data were performed to account for uncertainty in the meteorology and compared with a validated benchmark simulation. Results show that the reanalysis ensemble capture the inundated areas and volumes relatively well, with correlations for the ensemble mean of 0.82 and 0.85 for area and volume, respectively, although the meteorological ensemble spread propagates in large uncertainty of the simulated flood characteristics.