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Drivers of Continued Surface Warming After Cessation of Carbon Emissions
Author(s) -
Williams Richard G.,
Roussenov Vassil,
Frölicher Thomas L.,
Goodwin Philip
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl075080
Subject(s) - radiative forcing , environmental science , greenhouse gas , atmospheric sciences , forcing (mathematics) , atmosphere (unit) , climatology , global warming , climate model , radiative transfer , carbon fibers , cloud forcing , climate change , meteorology , geology , oceanography , materials science , geography , physics , quantum mechanics , composite number , composite material
The climate response after cessation of carbon emissions is examined here, exploiting a single equation connecting surface warming to cumulative carbon emissions. The multicentennial response to an idealized pulse of carbon is considered by diagnosing a 1,000 year integration of an Earth system model (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M) and an ensemble of efficient Earth system model simulations. After emissions cease, surface temperature evolves according to (i) how much of the emitted carbon remains in the atmosphere and (ii) how much of the additional radiative forcing warms the surface rather than the ocean interior. The peak in surface temperature is delayed in time after carbon emissions cease through the decline in ocean heat uptake, which in turn increases the proportion of radiative forcing warming the surface. Eventually, after many centuries, surface temperature declines as the radiative forcing decreases through the excess atmospheric CO 2 being taken up by the ocean and land.