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Is El Niño really changing?
Author(s) -
Capotondi Antonietta,
Sardeshmukh Prashant D.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl074515
Subject(s) - el niño southern oscillation , climatology , southern oscillation , multivariate enso index , global warming , event (particle physics) , environmental science , climate change , term (time) , geography , geology , physics , oceanography , quantum mechanics
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of tropical Pacific climate variability, with global impacts. Understanding how the statistics of ENSO events may be changing in response to global warming is of great interest and importance for society. A clear detection of such signals in observations has, however, been obscured by large event‐to‐event differences and apparent “regime shifts” such as that of the late 1970s. In particular, despite extensive research, it is not clear to what extent the observed long‐term changes are systemic or random. Here we show using a multicomponent linear inverse modeling technique that statistically significant systemic changes have indeed occurred in ENSO dynamics since the late 1970s and have affected the evolution of El Niño and La Niña events from their embryonic to fully mature stages.