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The relative contributions of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric internal variability to the recent global warming hiatus
Author(s) -
Deser Clara,
Guo Ruixia,
Lehner Flavio
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl074273
Subject(s) - climatology , teleconnection , sea surface temperature , climate model , environmental science , hiatus , forcing (mathematics) , atmospheric sciences , global warming , geology , climate change , oceanography , el niño southern oscillation , paleontology
The recent slowdown in global mean surface temperature (GMST) warming during boreal winter is examined from a regional perspective using 10‐member initial‐condition ensembles with two global coupled climate models in which observed tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (TPAC SSTAs) and radiative forcings are specified. Both models show considerable diversity in their surface air temperature (SAT) trend patterns across the members, attesting to the importance of internal variability beyond the tropical Pacific that is superimposed upon the response to TPAC SSTA and radiative forcing. Only one model shows a close relationship between the realism of its simulated GMST trends and SAT trend patterns. In this model, Eurasian cooling plays a dominant role in determining the GMST trend amplitude, just as in nature. In the most realistic member, intrinsic atmospheric dynamics and teleconnections forced by TPAC SSTA cause cooling over Eurasia (and North America), and contribute equally to its GMST trend.