Premium
Sea level projections for the Australian region in the 21st century
Author(s) -
Zhang Xuebin,
Church John A.,
Monselesan Didier,
McInnes Kathleen L.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl074176
Subject(s) - downscaling , climatology , ocean gyre , climate change , climate model , future sea level , sea level , coupled model intercomparison project , environmental science , sea ice , glacier , ocean current , geology , oceanography , cryosphere , ice shelf , subtropics , paleontology , fishery , biology
Sea level rise exhibits significant regional differences. Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models, sea level projections have been produced for the Australian region by taking account of regional dynamic changes, ocean thermal expansion, mass loss of glaciers, changes in Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and land water storage, and glacial isostatic adjustment. However, these regional projections have a coarse resolution (~100 km), while coastal adaptation planners demand finer scale information at the coast. To address this need, a 1/10° near‐global ocean model driven by ensemble average forcings from 17 CMIP5 models is used to downscale future climate. We produce high‐resolution sea level projections by combining downscaled dynamic sea level with other contributions. Off the southeast coast, dynamic downscaling provides better representation of high sea level projections associated with gyre circulation and boundary current changes. The high‐resolution sea level projection should be a valuable product for detailed coastal adaptation planning.