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Physics‐based forecasting of induced seismicity at Groningen gas field, the Netherlands
Author(s) -
Dempsey David,
Suckale Jenny
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl073878
Subject(s) - induced seismicity , seismology , natural gas field , bayesian probability , geology , extraction (chemistry) , poisson distribution , natural gas , statistics , engineering , mathematics , chemistry , chromatography , waste management
Earthquakes induced by natural gas extraction from the Groningen reservoir, the Netherlands, put local communities at risk. Responsible operation of a reservoir whose gas reserves are of strategic importance to the country requires understanding of the link between extraction and earthquakes. We synthesize observations and a model for Groningen seismicity to produce forecasts for felt seismicity ( M > 2.5) in the period February 2017 to 2024. Our model accounts for poroelastic earthquake triggering and rupture on the 325 largest reservoir faults, using an ensemble approach to model unknown heterogeneity and replicate earthquake statistics. We calculate probability distributions for key model parameters using a Bayesian method that incorporates the earthquake observations with a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Our analysis indicates that the Groningen reservoir was not critically stressed prior to the start of production. Epistemic uncertainty and aleatoric uncertainty are incorporated into forecasts for three different future extraction scenarios. The largest expected earthquake was similar for all scenarios, with a 5% likelihood of exceeding M 4.0.