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Longwave emission trends over Africa and implications for Atlantic hurricanes
Author(s) -
Zhang Lei,
Rechtman Thomas,
Karnauskas Kristopher B.,
Li Laifang,
Donnelly Jeffrey P.,
Kossin James P.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl073869
Subject(s) - climatology , forcing (mathematics) , environmental science , outgoing longwave radiation , tropical cyclone , atmospheric sciences , tropical cyclogenesis , satellite , african easterly jet , tropical atlantic , cyclogenesis , tropical wave , cyclone (programming language) , meteorology , geography , geology , sea surface temperature , physics , convection , field programmable gate array , astronomy , computer science , computer hardware
The latitudinal gradient of outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over Africa is a skillful and physically based predictor of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity. The African OLR gradient is observed to have strengthened during the satellite era, as predicted by state‐of‐the‐art global climate models (GCMs) in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Prior to the satellite era and the U.S. and European clean air acts, the African OLR gradient weakened due to aerosol forcing of the opposite sign. GCMs predict a continuation of the increasing OLR gradient in response to greenhouse gas forcing. Assuming a steady linear relationship between African easterly waves and tropical cyclogenesis, this result suggests a future increase in Atlantic tropical cyclone frequency by 10% (20%) at the end of the 21st century under the RCP 4.5 (8.5) forcing scenario.