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Multi vegetation model evaluation of the Green Sahara climate regime
Author(s) -
Hopcroft Peter O.,
Valdes Paul J.,
Harper Anna B.,
Beerling David J.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl073740
Subject(s) - vegetation (pathology) , environmental science , holocene , climate change , climatology , climate model , general circulation model , quaternary , physical geography , arid , atmospheric sciences , geology , geography , oceanography , medicine , paleontology , pathology
During the Quaternary, the Sahara desert was periodically colonized by vegetation, likely because of orbitally induced rainfall increases. However, the estimated hydrological change is not reproduced in climate model simulations, undermining confidence in projections of future rainfall. We evaluated the relationship between the qualitative information on past vegetation coverage and climate for the mid‐Holocene using three different dynamic vegetation models. Compared with two available vegetation reconstructions, the models require 500–800 mm of rainfall over 20°–25°N, which is significantly larger than inferred from pollen but largely in agreement with more recent leaf wax biomarker reconstructions. The magnitude of the response also suggests that required rainfall regime of the early to middle Holocene is far from being correctly represented in general circulation models. However, intermodel differences related to moisture stress parameterizations, biases in simulated present‐day vegetation, and uncertainties about paleosoil distributions introduce uncertainties, and these are also relevant to Earth system model simulations of African humid periods.