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Long‐Lead Prediction of the 2015 Fire and Haze Episode in Indonesia
Author(s) -
Shawki Dilshad,
Field Robert D.,
Tippett Michael K.,
Saharjo Bambang Hero,
Albar Israr,
Atmoko Dwi,
Voulgarakis Apostolos
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl073660
Subject(s) - lead (geology) , environmental science , climatology , sea surface temperature , warning system , lead time , haze , meteorology , geography , geology , geomorphology , aerospace engineering , marketing , engineering , business
We conducted a case study of National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System version 2 seasonal model forecast performance over Indonesia in predicting the dry conditions in 2015 that led to severe fire, in comparison to the non‐El Niño dry season conditions of 2016. Forecasts of the Drought Code (DC) component of Indonesia's Fire Danger Rating System were examined across the entire equatorial Asia region and for the primary burning regions within it. Our results show that early warning lead times of high observed DC in September and October 2015 varied considerably for different regions. High DC over Southern Kalimantan and Southern New Guinea were predicted with 180 day lead times, whereas Southern Sumatra had lead times of up to only 60 days, which we attribute to the absence in the forecasts of an eastward decrease in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. This case study provides the starting point for longer‐term evaluation of seasonal fire danger rating forecasts over Indonesia.