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Unraveling anthropogenic influence on the changing risk of heat waves in China
Author(s) -
Sun Qiaohong,
Miao Chiyuan,
AghaKouchak Amir,
Duan Qingyun
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl073531
Subject(s) - heat wave , china , environmental science , climatology , precipitation , climate extremes , extreme heat , atmospheric sciences , climate change , meteorology , geography , geology , oceanography , archaeology
Abstract Heat waves trigger substantial social and environmental impacts and even cause massive civilian casualties in extreme cases. Observations show the areas affected by heat waves have increased over China, with the most extreme heat wave occurring during the past five decades. Here we show that both trends can be attributed to anthropogenic influences. We report that under the moderate Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 scenario, anthropogenic influences will increase the risk of occurrence of the observed maximum Heat Wave Magnitude Index in the late 21st century and will cause a more than tenfold increase in the likelihood of the strongest events on record recurring across more than half China. More than 50% of land area in China is projected to be affected by intense heat waves. Our results show that over eastern China, the extremes in heat distribution are more sensitive to precipitation deficits, indicating stronger heat wave amplification trends to occur under drier conditions. The likelihood of concurrent droughts and heat waves is expected to increase in large parts of China in the late 21st century.