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A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low‐frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos
Author(s) -
Sérazin Guillaume,
Jaymond Alexandre,
Leroux Stéphanie,
Penduff Thierry,
Bessières Laurent,
Llovel William,
Barnier Bernard,
Molines JeanMarc,
Terray Laurent
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl073026
Subject(s) - ocean heat content , ocean gyre , climatology , forcing (mathematics) , boundary current , ocean dynamics , environmental science , subtropical indian ocean dipole , ocean current , geology , ocean general circulation model , atmospheric sciences , subtropics , oceanography , general circulation model , climate change , fishery , biology
A global 1/4° ocean/sea ice 50‐member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low‐frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the large‐scale (10° × 10°) ocean heat content (OHC) between 1980 and 2010. The IOV explains most of the interannual‐to‐decadal large‐scale OHC variance over substantial fractions of the global ocean area that increase with depth: 9%, 22%, and 31% in the 0–700 m, 700–2000 m and 2000 m bottom layers, respectively. Such areas concern principally eddy‐active regions, mostly found in the Southern Ocean and in western boundary current extensions, and also concern the subtropical gyres at intermediate and deep levels. The oceanic chaos may also induce random multidecadal fluctuations so that large‐scale regional OHC trends computed on the 1980–2010 period cannot be unambiguously attributed to the atmospheric forcing in several oceanic basins at various depths. These results are likely to raise detection and attribution issues from real observations.