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Parameterization‐based uncertainty in future lightning flash density
Author(s) -
Clark Spencer K.,
Ward Daniel S.,
Mahowald Natalie M.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl073017
Subject(s) - lightning (connector) , flash (photography) , environmental science , meteorology , satellite , atmospheric model , atmospheric sciences , climatology , geology , geography , physics , power (physics) , quantum mechanics , astronomy , optics
In this study we implement eight lightning parameterizations in the Community Atmospheric Model (CAM5), evaluate the performance of the parameterizations in the present climate, and test the sensitivity of future lightning activity to the choice of parameterization. In the present day, the annual mean lightning flash densities in simulations constrained by reanalysis data show the highest spatial correlation to satellite observations for parameterizations based either on cloud top height (0.83) or cold cloud depth (0.80). Under future scenarios using representative concentration pathways, changes in global mean lightning flash density are highly sensitive to the parameterization chosen, with cloud top height schemes, a cold cloud depth scheme, and a scheme based on convective mass flux projecting large increases (36% to 45%), a mild increase (12.6%), and a decrease (−6.7%) in lightning flash density, respectively, under the RCP8.5 scenario, which causes a 3.4 K warming between 1996–2005 and 2079–2088.