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A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes
Author(s) -
Messori Gabriele,
Caballero Rodrigo,
Faranda Davide
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2017gl072879
Subject(s) - predictability , climatology , middle latitudes , scale (ratio) , environmental science , meteorology , extreme weather , atmospheric circulation , dynamical systems theory , computer science , geology , geography , climate change , mathematics , oceanography , cartography , physics , statistics , quantum mechanics
Extreme weather occurrences carry enormous social and economic costs and routinely garner widespread scientific and media coverage. The ability to predict these events is therefore a topic of crucial importance. Here we propose a novel predictability pathway for extreme events, by building upon recent advances in dynamical systems theory. We show that simple dynamical systems metrics can be used to identify sets of large‐scale atmospheric flow patterns with similar spatial structure and temporal evolution on time scales of several days to a week. In regions where these patterns favor extreme weather, they afford a particularly good predictability of the extremes. We specifically test this technique on the atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, where it provides predictability of large‐scale wintertime surface temperature extremes in Europe up to 1 week in advance.