Spatial and temporal estimates of population exposure to wildfire smoke during the Washington state 2012 wildfire season using blended model, satellite, and in situ data

Abstract In the western U.S., smoke from wild and prescribed fires can severely degrade air quality. Due to changes in climate and land management, wildfires have increased in frequency and severity, and this trend is expected to continue. Consequently, wildfires are expected to become an increasingly important source of air pollutants in the western U.S. Hence, there is a need to develop a quantitative understanding of wildfire‐smoke‐specific health effects. A necessary step in this process is to determine who was exposed to wildfire smoke, the concentration of the smoke during exposure, and the duration of the exposure. Three different tools have been used in past studies to assess exposure to wildfire smoke: in situ measurements, satellite‐based observations, and chemical‐transport model (CTM) simulations. Each of these exposure‐estimation tools has associated strengths and weakness. We investigate the utility of blending these tools together to produce estimates of PM 2.5 exposure from wildfire smoke during the Washington 2012 fire season. For blending, we use a ridge‐regression model and a geographically weighted ridge‐regression model. We evaluate the performance of the three individual exposure‐estimate techniques and the two blended techniques by using leave‐one‐out cross validation. We find that predictions based on in situ monitors are more accurate for this particular fire season than the CTM simulations and satellite‐based observations because of the large number of monitors present; therefore, blending provides only marginal improvements above the in situ observations. However, we show that in hypothetical cases with fewer surface monitors, the two blending techniques can produce substantial improvement over any of the individual tools.