Open AccessEurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi‐model Ensemble Projection
Author(s) -
Basu Soumik,
Zhang Xiangdong,
Wang Zhaomin
Publication year - 2018
Publication title -
earth's future
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.641
H-Index - 39
ISSN - 2328-4277
DOI - 10.1002/2017ef000670
Subject(s) - extratropical cyclone , climatology , storm , environmental science , storm track , precipitation , cyclone (programming language) , winter storm , latitude , middle latitudes , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geography , geology , geodesy , field programmable gate array , computer science , computer hardware
Abstract Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid‐ and high‐latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid‐latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid‐latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.