Premium
A decomposition‐integration risk analysis method for real‐time operation of a complex flood control system
Author(s) -
Chen Juan,
Zhong PingAn,
Zhang Yu,
Navar David,
Yeh William W.G.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
water resources research
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.863
H-Index - 217
eISSN - 1944-7973
pISSN - 0043-1397
DOI - 10.1002/2016wr019842
Subject(s) - flood myth , flood control , computer science , flooding (psychology) , curse of dimensionality , decomposition method (queueing theory) , real time control system , 100 year flood , control (management) , decomposition , environmental science , mathematics , statistics , geography , artificial intelligence , psychology , ecology , archaeology , psychotherapist , biology
Risk analysis plays an important role in decision making for real‐time flood control operation of complex flood control systems. A typical flood control system consists of reservoirs, river channels, and downstream control points. The system generally is characterized by nonlinearity and large scale. Additionally, the input variables are mostly stochastic. Because of the dimensionality problem, generally, it would not be possible to carry out risk analysis without decomposition. In this paper, we propose a decomposition‐integration approach whereby the original complex flood control system is decomposed into a number of independent subsystems. We conduct risk analysis for each subsystem and then integrate the results by means of combination theory of stochastic processes. We evaluate the propagation of uncertainties through the complex flood control system and calculate the risk of reservoir overtopping, as well as the risk of flooding at selected downstream control points. We apply the proposed methodology to a flood control system in the middle reaches of the Huaihe River basin in China. The results show that the proposed method is practical and provides a way to estimate the risks in real‐time flood control operation of a complex flood control system.