Open AccessApplication of decision‐making to a solar flare forecast in the cost‐loss ratio situation
Author(s) -
Park Jongyeob,
Moon YongJae,
Choi Seonghwan,
Baek JiHye,
Cho KyungSuk,
Lee Kangjin
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
space weather
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.254
H-Index - 56
ISSN - 1542-7390
DOI - 10.1002/2016sw001532
Subject(s) - flare , forecast skill , solar flare , function (biology) , statistics , econometrics , mathematics , physics , astrophysics , evolutionary biology , biology
The conventional skill scores for evaluating flare forecast models do not take into account the effect of various cost‐loss ratios. For the first time, we have applied a decision‐making based on skill scores to a flare forecast model in cost‐loss ratio situations. For this study, we consider a flare forecast model which provides daily solar flare probabilities from 2011 to 2014. The skill scores are computed through contingency tables as a function of probability threshold ( P th ) for the decision‐making. A value score (VS) is calculated as a function of cost‐loss ratio ( C / L ) and P th, which are linearly correlated with each other. The maximum values of VS are 0.57, 0.37, and 0.61 for C‐, M‐, and X‐class flare, respectively. We expect that this study would provide a guideline to determine C / L and P th for the better decision‐making in similar forecast models.