Open AccessOn the propagation of uncertainties in radiation belt simulations
Author(s) -
Camporeale Enrico,
Shprits Yuri,
Chandorkar Mandar,
Drozdov Alexander,
Wing Simon
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
space weather
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.254
H-Index - 56
ISSN - 1542-7390
DOI - 10.1002/2016sw001494
Subject(s) - van allen radiation belt , nonlinear system , probabilistic logic , statistical physics , focus (optics) , radiation , diffusion , van allen probes , propagation of uncertainty , physics , computer science , magnetosphere , algorithm , magnetic field , optics , quantum mechanics , artificial intelligence , thermodynamics
We present the first study of the uncertainties associated with radiation belt simulations, performed in the standard quasi‐linear diffusion framework. In particular, we estimate how uncertainties of some input parameters propagate through the nonlinear simulation, producing a distribution of outputs that can be quite broad. Here we restrict our focus on two‐dimensional simulations (in energy and pitch angle space) of parallel‐propagating chorus waves only, and we study as stochastic input parameters the geomagnetic index K p (that characterizes the time dependency of an idealized storm), the latitudinal extent of waves, and the average electron density. We employ a collocation method, thus performing an ensemble of simulations. The results of this work point to the necessity of shifting to a probabilistic interpretation of radiation belt simulation results and suggest that an accurate specification of a time‐dependent density model is crucial for modeling the radiation environment.