Prediction of shock arrival times from CME and flare data

This paper presents the Shock Arrival Model (SARM) for predicting shock arrival times for distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU by using coronal mass ejections (CME) and flare data. SARM is an aerodynamic drag model described by a differential equation that has been calibrated with a data set of 120 shocks observed from 1997 to 2010 by minimizing the mean absolute error (MAE), normalized to 1 AU. SARM should be used with CME data (radial, earthward, or plane‐of‐sky speeds) and flare data (peak flux, duration, and location). In the case of 1 AU, the MAE and the median of absolute errors were 7.0 h and 5.0 h, respectively, using the available CME/flare data. The best results for 1 AU (an MAE of 5.8 h) were obtained using both CME data, either radial or cone model‐estimated speeds, and flare data. For the prediction of shock arrivals at distances from 0.72 AU to 8.7 AU, the normalized MAE and the median were 7.1 h and 5.1 h, respectively, using the available CME/flare data. SARM was also calibrated to be used with CME data alone or flare data alone, obtaining normalized MAE errors of 8.9 h and 8.6 h, respectively, for all shock events. The model verification was carried out with an additional data set of 20 shocks observed from 2010 to 2012 with radial CME speeds to compare SARM with the empirical ESA model and the numerical MHD‐based ENLIL model. The results show that the ENLIL's MAE was lower than the SARM's MAE, which was lower than the ESA's MAE. The SARM's best results were obtained when both flare and true CME speeds were used.