Mechanistic modeling of microbial interactions at pore to profile scale resolve methane emission dynamics from permafrost soil

The sensitivity of polar regions to raising global temperatures is reflected in rapidly changing hydrological processes associated with pronounced seasonal thawing of permafrost soil and increased biological activity. Of particular concern is the potential release of large amounts of soil carbon and stimulation of other soil‐borne greenhouse gas emissions such as methane. Soil methanotrophic and methanogenic microbial communities rapidly adjust their activity and spatial organization in response to permafrost thawing and other environmental factors. Soil structural elements such as aggregates and layering affect oxygen and nutrient diffusion processes thereby contributing to methanogenic activity within temporal anoxic niches (hot spots). We developed a mechanistic individual‐based model to quantify microbial activity dynamics in soil pore networks considering transport processes and enzymatic activity associated with methane production in soil. The model was upscaled from single aggregates to the soil profile where freezing/thawing provides macroscopic boundary conditions for microbial activity at different soil depths. The model distinguishes microbial activity in aerate bulk soil from aggregates (or submerged profile) for resolving methane production and oxidation rates. Methane transport pathways by diffusion and ebullition of bubbles vary with hydration dynamics. The model links seasonal thermal and hydrologic dynamics with evolution of microbial community composition and function affecting net methane emissions in good agreement with experimental data. The mechanistic model enables systematic evaluation of key controlling factors in thawing permafrost and microbial response (e.g., nutrient availability and enzyme activity) on long‐term methane emissions and carbon decomposition rates in the rapidly changing polar regions.