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Recent climatological trends and potential influences on forest phenology around western Lake Superior, USA
Author(s) -
Garcia Matthew,
Townsend Philip A.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: atmospheres
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-8996
pISSN - 2169-897X
DOI - 10.1002/2016jd025190
Subject(s) - phenology , environmental science , precipitation , growing season , climate change , vegetation (pathology) , climatology , global warming , physical geography , ecology , geography , medicine , pathology , geology , meteorology , biology
We assess long‐term climatological means, trends, and interannual variability around the western end of Lake Superior during 1984–2013 by using available weather station data. Our results focus on changes in basic and derived climate indicators from seasonal and annual temperature and precipitation, to the traditionally defined frost‐free season, to a novel definition of the climatological growing season. We describe seasonal and year‐to‐year climate variability that influences forest phenology, using an alternative growing season metric that is based on the warm‐season plateau in accumulated chilling days as an indicator of environmental triggers for vegetation growth and senescence. Our results indicate +0.56°C regional warming during our 30 year study period, with cooler springs (−1.26°C) and significant autumn warming (+1.54°C). The duration of the climatological growing season has increased +0.27 d/yr, extending primarily into autumn. Summer precipitation in our study area has declined by an average −0.34 cm/yr, potentially leading to moisture stress that impairs vegetation carbon uptake rates and can render the forest more vulnerable to disturbance. Many changes in temperature, precipitation, and climatological growing season are most prominent in locations where Lake Superior exerts a strong hydroclimatological influence, especially the Minnesota shoreline and in forest areas downwind (southeast) of the lake. Observed trends in lake temperature and ice phenology have also changed, coincident with a large‐scale climatological regime shift around 1998. A number of factors are likely altering forest phenology and the role of the forest in the climate system of this ecologically important and highly varied forest‐and‐lake region.