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How variable is the number of triggered aftershocks?
Author(s) -
Marsan D.,
Helmstetter A.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: solid earth
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 1.983
H-Index - 232
eISSN - 2169-9356
pISSN - 2169-9313
DOI - 10.1002/2016jb013807
Subject(s) - aftershock , log normal distribution , shock (circulatory) , poisson distribution , magnitude (astronomy) , robustness (evolution) , statistical physics , mathematics , statistics , geology , physics , seismology , medicine , biochemistry , chemistry , astronomy , gene
Aftershock activity depends at first order on the main shock magnitude but also shows important fluctuations between shocks of equal magnitude. We here investigate these fluctuations, by quantifying them and by relating them to the main shock stress drop and other variables, for southern California earthquakes. A method is proposed in order to only count directly triggered aftershocks, rather than secondary aftershocks (i.e., triggered by previous aftershocks), and to only quantify fluctuations going beyond the natural Poisson variability. Testing of the method subjected to various model errors allows to quantify its robustness. It is found that these fluctuations follow a distribution that is well fitted by a lognormal distribution, with a coefficient of variation of about 1.0 to 1.1. A simple model is proposed to relate this observed dependence to main shock stress drop variability.