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Ionosphere data assimilation modeling of 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm
Author(s) -
Chen C. H.,
Lin C. H.,
Matsuo T.,
Chen W. H.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
journal of geophysical research: space physics
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
eISSN - 2169-9402
pISSN - 2169-9380
DOI - 10.1002/2016ja023346
Subject(s) - ionosphere , data assimilation , geomagnetic storm , storm , thermosphere , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , earth's magnetic field , environmental science , geology , geophysics , climatology , physics , magnetic field , quantum mechanics
The ionospheric plasma disturbances during a severe storm can affect human activities and systems, such as navigation and HF communication systems. Therefore, the forecast of ionospheric electron density is becoming an important topic recently. This study is conducted with the ionospheric assimilation model by assimilating the total electron content observations into the thermosphere‐ionosphere coupling model with different high‐latitude ionospheric convection models, Heelis and Weimer, and further to forecast the variations of ionospheric electron density during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm. The forecast capabilities of these two assimilation models are evaluated by the root‐mean‐square error values in different regions to discuss its latitudinal effects. Results show the better forecast in the electron density at the low‐latitude region during the storm main phase and the recovery phase. The well reproduced eastward electric field at the low‐latitude region by the assimilation model reveals that the electric fields may be an important factor to have the contributions on the accuracy of ionospheric forecast.