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Global changes of extreme coastal wave energy fluxes triggered by intensified teleconnection patterns
Author(s) -
Mentaschi Lorenzo,
Vousdoukas Michalis I.,
Voukouvalas Evangelos,
Dosio Alessandro,
Feyen Luc
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl072488
Subject(s) - teleconnection , climatology , southern hemisphere , environmental science , northern hemisphere , pacific decadal oscillation , temperate climate , oceanography , geology , el niño southern oscillation , botany , biology
In this study we conducted a comprehensive modeling analysis to identify global trends in extreme wave energy flux (WEF) along coastlines in the 21st century under a high emission pathway (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5). For the end of the century, results show a significant increase up to 30% in 100 year return level WEF for the majority of the coastal areas of the southern temperate zone, while in the Northern Hemisphere large coastal areas are characterized by a significant negative trend. We show that the most significant long‐term trends of extreme WEF can be explained by intensification of teleconnection patterns such as the Antarctic Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The projected changes will have broad implications for ocean engineering applications and disaster risk management. Especially low‐lying coastal countries in the Southern Hemisphere will be particularly vulnerable due to the combined effects of projected relative sea level rise and more extreme wave activities.