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East Antarctic ice sheet most vulnerable to Weddell Sea warming
Author(s) -
Golledge N. R.,
Levy R. H.,
McKay R. M.,
Naish T. R.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl072422
Subject(s) - antarctic ice sheet , ice sheet , geology , ice sheet model , sea ice , climatology , climate change , context (archaeology) , cryosphere , future sea level , antarctic sea ice , climate model , oceanography , paleontology
Models predict considerable spatial variability in the magnitude of future climate change around Antarctica, suggesting that some sectors of the continent may be more affected by these changes than others. Furthermore, the geometry of the bedrock topography underlying the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, together with regional differences in ice thickness, mean that certain ice drainage basins may respond more or less sensitively to environmental forcings. Here we use an ensemble of idealized climates to drive ice‐sheet simulations that explore regional and continental‐scale thresholds, allowing us to identify a hierarchy of catchment vulnerabilities based on differences in long‐term catchment‐averaged ice loss. Considering this hierarchy in the context of recent observations and climate scenarios forecast for 2100 CE, we conclude that the majority of future ice loss from East Antarctica, both this century and over subsequent millennia, will likely come from the Recovery subglacial basin in the eastern Weddell Sea.