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The projected demise of Barnes Ice Cap: Evidence of an unusually warm 21st century Arctic
Author(s) -
Gilbert A.,
Flowers G. E.,
Miller G. H.,
Refsnider K. A.,
Young N. E.,
Radić V.
Publication year - 2017
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl072394
Subject(s) - ice sheet , ice caps , ice sheet model , arctic ice pack , ice stream , geology , climatology , cryosphere , glacial period , sea ice , ice core , greenland ice sheet , demise , antarctic sea ice , oceanography , glacier , geomorphology , political science , law
As a remnant of the Laurentide Ice Sheet, Barnes Ice Cap owes its existence and present form in part to the climate of the last glacial period. The ice cap has been sustained in the present interglacial climate by its own topography through the mass balance‐elevation feedback. A coupled mass balance and ice‐flow model, forced by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate model output, projects that the current ice cap will likely disappear in the next 300 years. For greenhouse gas Representative Concentration Pathways of +2.6 to +8.5 Wm −2 , the projected ice‐cap survival times range from 150 to 530 years. Measured concentrations of cosmogenic radionuclides 10 Be, 26 Al, and 14 C at sites exposed near the ice‐cap margin suggest the pending disappearance of Barnes Ice Cap is very unusual in the last million years. The data and models together point to an exceptionally warm 21st century Arctic climate.