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Importance of the Gulf of Mexico as a climate driver for U.S. severe thunderstorm activity
Author(s) -
Molina M. J.,
Timmer R. P.,
Allen J. T.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl071603
Subject(s) - tornado , climatology , thunderstorm , predictability , severe weather , environmental science , el niño southern oscillation , convection , atmospheric sciences , meteorology , geology , geography , storm , physics , quantum mechanics
Different features of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM), such as the Loop Current and warm‐core rings, are found to influence monthly‐to‐seasonal severe weather occurrence in different regions of the United States (U.S.). The warmer (cooler) the GOM sea surface temperatures, the more (less) hail and tornadoes occur during March–May over the southern U.S. This pattern is reflected physically in boundary layer specific humidity and mixed‐layer convective available potential energy, two large‐scale atmospheric conditions favorable for severe weather occurrence. This relationship is complicated by interactions between the GOM and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) but persists when analyzing ENSO neutral conditions. This suggests that the GOM can influence hail and tornado occurrence and provides another source of regional predictability for seasonal severe weather.