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Urbanization causes nonstationarity in Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall extremes
Author(s) -
Singh Jitendra,
Vittal H.,
Karmakar Subhankar,
Ghosh Subimal,
Niyogi Dev
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl071238
Subject(s) - urbanization , climatology , environmental science , monsoon , scale (ratio) , geography , geology , economic growth , cartography , economics
Global and local environmental changes are likely to introduce nonstationarity in the characteristics of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) extremes. Here we perform a nonstationary frequency analysis on ISMR extremes in a Generalized Additive Model for Location, Scale and Shape framework with a cluster of 74 models, considering nonstationarity in different possible combinations. Interestingly, we observe significant nonstationarity in ISMR extremes in urbanizing/developing‐urban areas (transitioning from rural to urban), compared to completely urbanized or rural areas. This presents a postulation that the extent of urbanization plays a significant role in introducing nonstationarity in ISMR extremes. We emphasize the effect of urbanization in changing the character of ISMR extremes, which further needs a scientific re‐evaluation by implementing physics‐based modeling. The impact of these observational studies will be critical in correcting the bias of model projections of ISMR.