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Unraveling El Niño's impact on the East Asian Monsoon and Yangtze River summer flooding
Author(s) -
Zhang Wenjun,
Jin FeiFei,
Stuecker Malte F.,
Wittenberg Andrew T.,
Timmermann Axel,
Ren HongLi,
Kug JongSeong,
Cai Wenju,
Cane Mark
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl071190
Subject(s) - climatology , predictability , monsoon , precipitation , flooding (psychology) , east asian monsoon , east asia , boreal , environmental science , multivariate enso index , el niño southern oscillation , yangtze river , population , la niña , geography , oceanography , geology , china , meteorology , physics , psychology , archaeology , psychotherapist , demography , quantum mechanics , sociology
Strong El Niño events are followed by massive summer monsoon flooding over the Yangtze River basin (YRB), home to about a third of the population in China. Although the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) provides the main source of seasonal climate predictability for many parts of the Earth, the mechanisms of its connection to the East Asian monsoon remain largely elusive. For instance, the traditional Niño3.4 ENSO index only captures precipitation anomalies over East Asia in boreal winter but not during the summer. Here we show that there exists a robust year‐round and predictable relationship between ENSO and the Asian monsoon. This connection is revealed by combining equatorial (Niño3.4) and off‐equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (Niño‐A index) into a new metric that captures ENSO's various aspects, such as its interaction with the annual cycle and its different flavors. This extended view of ENSO complexity improves predictability of YRB summer flooding events.