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Global warming projection in the 21st century based on an observational data‐driven model
Author(s) -
Zeng Xubin,
Geil Kerrie
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl071035
Subject(s) - global warming , climatology , environmental science , projection (relational algebra) , range (aeronautics) , climate change , slowdown , climate simulation , climate model , atmospheric sciences , computer science , geology , oceanography , economics , materials science , algorithm , composite material , economic growth
Global warming has been projected primarily by Earth system models (ESMs). Complementary to this approach, here we provide the decadal and long‐term global warming projections based on an observational data‐driven model. This model combines natural multidecadal variability with anthropogenic warming that depends on the history of annual emissions. It shows good skill in decadal hindcasts with the recent warming slowdown well captured. While our ensemble mean temperature projections at the end of 21st century are consistent with those from ESMs, our decadal warming projection of 0.35 (0.30‐0.43) K from 1986–2005 to 2016–2035 is within their projection range and only two‐thirds of the ensemble mean from ESMs. Our predicted warming rate in the next few years is slower than in the 1980s and 1990s, followed by a greater warming rate. Our projection uncertainty range is just one‐third of that from ESMs, and its implication is also discussed.