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The quasi‐biennial oscillation of 2015–2016: Hiccup or death spiral?
Author(s) -
Dunkerton Timothy J.
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl070921
Subject(s) - oscillation (cell signaling) , stratosphere , anomaly (physics) , quasi biennial oscillation , southern oscillation , physics , climatology , geology , phase (matter) , magnitude (astronomy) , asymmetry , el niño southern oscillation , astrophysics , condensed matter physics , chemistry , quantum mechanics , biochemistry
Over the last 9 months, the quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) of the equatorial lower stratosphere has deviated significantly from its normal behavior documented since 1953. Historically, the QBO has varied mainly in the duration of individual oscillation phases or, equivalently, the rate of azimuthal propagation in a 2‐D phase space; in contrast, the oscillation in recent months seems to have ceased. Other features such as the magnitude of wind extrema, east‐west phase asymmetry, and seasonal modulation have been fairly regular over all cycles save for the current one and its closest analog in 1960. Our comment on Newman et al. (2016) highlights features of the anomaly noted by them, contrasts this evolution with the standard QBO model, and draws attention to some unusual features of the 2015–2016 El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm event.