Premium
Sensitivity of precipitation extremes to radiative forcing of greenhouse gases and aerosols
Author(s) -
Lin Lei,
Wang Zhili,
Xu Yangyang,
Fu Qiang
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl070869
Subject(s) - environmental science , greenhouse gas , radiative forcing , precipitation , forcing (mathematics) , climatology , atmospheric sciences , aerosol , climate change , climate model , global warming , climate commitment , climate sensitivity , cloud forcing , meteorology , effects of global warming , geology , geography , oceanography
Greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols are the two most important anthropogenic forcing agents in the 21st century. The expected declines of anthropogenic aerosols in the 21st century from present‐day levels would cause an additional warming of the Earth's climate system, which would aggravate the climate extremes caused by GHG warming. We examine the increased rate of precipitation extremes with global mean surface warming in the 21st century caused by anthropogenic GHGs and aerosols, using an Earth system model ensemble simulation. Similar to mean precipitation, the increased rate of precipitation extremes caused by aerosol forcing is significantly larger than that caused by GHG forcing. The aerosol forcing in the coming decades can play a critical role in inducing change in precipitation extremes if a lower GHG emission pathway is adopted. Our results have implications for policy‐making on climate adaptation to extreme precipitation events.