Role of regional wetland emissions in atmospheric methane variability

Atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) accounts for ~20% of the total direct anthropogenic radiative forcing by long‐lived greenhouse gases. Surface observations show a pause (1999–2006) followed by a resumption in CH 4 growth, which remain largely unexplained. Using a land surface model, we estimate wetland CH 4 emissions from 1993 to 2014 and study the regional contributions to changes in atmospheric CH 4 . Atmospheric model simulations using these emissions, together with other sources, compare well with surface and satellite CH 4 data. Modeled global wetland emissions vary by ±3%/yr ( σ  = 4.8 Tg), mainly due to precipitation‐induced changes in wetland area, but the integrated effect makes only a small contribution to the pause in CH 4 growth from 1999 to 2006. Increasing temperature, which increases wetland area, drives a long‐term trend in wetland CH 4 emissions of +0.2%/yr (1999 to 2014). The increased growth post‐2006 was partly caused by increased wetland emissions (+3%), mainly from Tropical Asia, Southern Africa, and Australia.