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Northeast sector of the Greenland Ice Sheet to undergo the greatest inland expansion of supraglacial lakes during the 21st century
Author(s) -
Ignéczi Ádám,
Sole Andrew J.,
Livingstone Stephen J.,
Leeson Amber A.,
Fettweis Xavier,
Selmes Nick,
Gourmelen Noel,
Briggs Kate
Publication year - 2016
Publication title -
geophysical research letters
Language(s) - English
Resource type - Journals
SCImago Journal Rank - 2.007
H-Index - 273
eISSN - 1944-8007
pISSN - 0094-8276
DOI - 10.1002/2016gl070338
Subject(s) - greenland ice sheet , meltwater , ice sheet , future sea level , climate change , physical geography , climatology , elevation (ballistics) , ice sheet model , groenlandia , climate model , glacier mass balance , geology , environmental science , cryosphere , geography , glacier , oceanography , ice stream , sea ice , geometry , mathematics
The formation and rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes (SGL) influences the mass balance and dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). Although SGLs are expected to spread inland during the 21st century due to atmospheric warming, less is known about their future spatial distribution and volume. We use GrIS surface elevation model and regional climate model outputs to show that at the end of the 21st century (2070–2099) approximately 9.8 ± 3.9 km 3 (+113% compared to 1980‐2009) and 12.6 ± 5 km 3 (+174%) of meltwater could be stored in SGLs under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and 8.5), respectively. The largest increase is expected in the northeastern sector of the GrIS (191% in RCP 4.5 and 320% in RCP 8.5), whereas in west Greenland, where the most SGLs are currently observed, the future increase will be relatively moderate (55% in RCP 4.5 and 68% in RCP 8.5).